Uncertainty is inherent to decisionmaking on scales both big and small.
For example, an individual is unsure what medical needs will arise for her family over the next year, so she’s uncertain about which employer-sponsored health care plan to choose.
Or a local planner charged with developing a water resources infrastructure plan for the next fifty years faces uncertainty about changes in the regional climate, rules and regulations governing shared water resources, and the adoption rate of water-saving technologies.
The Center for Decision Making under Uncertainty helps researchers use tools and methodologies to provide decisionmakers with the confidence that RAND recommendations are rooted in unbiased, evidence-based facts and analysis. And we do it using an interdisciplinary perspective to take on complex policy problems that involve uncertainty.
Whether the goal is structuring a decision and characterizing alternatives, estimating the likelihood of future consequences, or making, evaluating, and communicating choices, the methods we use can address uncertainties that range from simple to ambiguous to deeply complex.
We are continually investing in the development of new tools that can help decisionmakers avoid serious miscalculations by drawing on the brainpower of practitioners and researchers from all over the world.
The Center for Decision Making under Uncertainty develops and curates resources to support RAND researchers and clients in making informed methodological choices. We draw on methods such as behavioral experiments, expert elicitation, qualitative analyses of mental models, and tools for longer-term decisionmaking such as robust decision making and portfolio management. We help guide RAND investments in developing these methods. And we facilitate methodological discussions both within RAND and with practitioners and researchers worldwide.Learn More