All Pardee RAND students complete a policy-relevant dissertation aimed at tackling the most pressing policy issues facing the world. Many Pardee RAND dissertations are partially- or fully-funded through endowed dissertation awards and other prizes.
Uses the methodologies of exploratory modeling and robust planning to create a capabilities-based framework for the analysis of purchasing decisions for precision guided munitions. Combining both methodologies makes it possible to create improved and flexible munitions portfolios that perform well across a variety of possible futures while operating within an economic framework.
Aging aircraft are a primary concern to the Air Force. Understanding the impact of aircraft age on maintenance costs is critical to “repair versus replace” decisions. This dissertation uses annual commercial aircraft fleet data, combined with age information from the Boeing Company, to provide a unique view of the cost to maintain commercial fleets.
Estimates achievement effects as measured by the Stanford Achievement Test 9 for students in grades 1–11 who participated in comprehensive school reform in the Los Angeles Unified School District between 1999 and 2002. The author found no consistent evidence that earlier intervention caused larger gains, but there was strong evidence that longer participation caused larger effects.
Explores the effect of cost-sharing on the initiation of and adherence to prescription drug therapy for hypertension. Results suggest that a significant portion of the reduction in prescription drug utilization that is mediated by cost may occur when patients make the initial decision to pharmacologically treat a newly diagnosed chronic condition but that cost-sharing may be less influential on utilization once patients have initiated therapy.
Addresses the cosmic impact hazard (the threat to the Earth posed by asteroids and comets) as an extreme example of a low-probability, high-consequence policy problem and presents a comprehensive framework for dealing with the technical and societal uncertainties surrounding the impact hazard. The author assesses the robustness of a proposed policy intervention: social reassurance by means of a demonstrated mitigation capability.
Develops an analytic framework for exploring ways to encourage contributions from U.S. allies, with specific reference to Japan’s Host Nation Support program (HNS) for the U.S. Forces in Japan. The author examines the history of the U.S.-Japan alliance and the future of the alliance, looking particularly at the next Special Measures Agreement for the HNS in 2006.
Compares how policymakers’ use of intelligence to support the policymaking process has changed. The intelligence community’s Intelink nework, the Internet, and web-based sources of analysis have not become major contributors to the policymaking process. Policymakers still find intelligence analysis useful for supporting the policymaking process, especially when it is conveyed through a one-on-one intelligence briefing.
Develops a model that enables policymakers and analysts to understand how terrorist financial networks work, how current policies targeting those networks will affect them, and how terrorist organizations are likely to react to those policies. The author makes a series of recommendations and suggests areas for further information use or collection.
Swarming occurs when several military units conduct a convergent attack on a target from multiple axes. The author derives a simple theory that explains the phenomenology of swarming. He considers command and control, communications, home field advantage, surprise, fratricide, and training and identifies the primary variables most important to successful swarming.
Proposes a new, more efficient way to address how much capital infrastructure the U.S. Air Force should own rather than lease through other providers. The author develops an inventory simulation model that determines the least-cost inventory (capacity) and allows decisionmakers to evaluate “what-if” policy scenarios that affect lodging.
Discusses the theory underlying various responses to the problem of failing schools, including parental choice and government interventions. Examines New Zealand’s experience with failing schools and intervention strategies in underperforming schools in California; applies the results of the research to education reform in the Emirate of Qatar.
Venture capital investments in China have been growing fast in the past decade. International venture capitalists dominate China's venture capital industry because of the restrictions on raising funds within China. This dissertation examines the history of venture capital investment in China in the 1990s by means of two unique data sets collected by the author. It finds that Chinese government policies have had an important influence on the pattern of venture capital investments.
Examines the effects of location-the physical, social, and economic attributes of neighborhoods where drug treatment clients live and receive treatment-on program retention and finds that clients' residential environments are significantly worse than those of the non-client household population. A policy that matched all clients with the most appropriate neighborhood could increase the L. A. county rate of retention by up to 30 percent.
Identifies policies and organizational options at the local level that could save lives and reduce injuries from an act of chemical terrorism, using Los Angeles as a case study. Presents low-cost options in equipment, training, organization and doctrine that could improve the response to a chemical terrorist event, and examines these options in terms of budget considerations in Los Angeles
Explores the problem of representativeness in medical trial design by investigating the causes of the underrepresentation of older adults in clinical cancer trials. The author compares sources of data and modeling approaches for estimating treatment costs in health services research and estimates the impact of clinical trial participation on prescription drug costs.
Current approaches to evaluating the benefits of medical technologies often ignore employment-related benefits, thus undervaluing interventions that improve functioning and productivity for those of working age. The author developed a model showing that the observed incremental labor supply is a result of more effective treatment and of other factors, and conducted two empirical studies to estimate the effects of treatment on patients' employment.
Research indicates that both mothers and children benefit from breastfeeding. However, a large fraction of mothers do not breastfeed or breastfeed for a shorter period than recommended, and some groups of mothers are more likely to breastfeed than others. This dissertation seeks to understand these breastfeeding patterns by investigating demographic changes, welfare work requirements, and workplace characteristics.
A one-year delay in kindergarten entrance has a positive and significant effect on children’s test scores. The initial entrance-age effect is smaller among poor and disabled children, but delaying entrance has a sizable effect on their test score gains over time. Higher childcare prices and maternal wages lower the age at which parents desire to send their child to kindergarten.
Explores teachers informal learning experiences. It examines a group of inquiry science teachers, generating hypotheses about the nature of their informal learning experiences, the resultant learning, how those experiences affect their professional lives, and the implications for education policy. It also provides an example of how to operationalize informal learning measures within an evaluation of a particular professional development program.
People near the end of their lives often do not have enough income or liquid assets to pay mounting bills. They are increasingly using viatical settlements, which allow policyholders to convert their previously nonliquid life insurance policies into cash at a discount to the policies' face value. Using a database of HIV+ patients, the author evaluates the effect of minimum price regulations on the viatical settlement market and examines consumers' decisions in that market.
This study examines the periods 1973-1978 and 1988-1993 to determine factors associated with differential HMO enrollment growth across metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). The research suggests that the factors associated with HMO enrollment growth on the MSA level changed in the 10 years between the two periods, as the industry shifted from growth to maturity to slow decline.
Provides the Air Force with a methodology for evaluating various strategies to improve the procurement of spare parts and applies the methodology to F100 engine parts. Uses exploratory analysis techniques and system dynamic modeling to gain a better understanding of the effectiveness of various supplier management policies and shows that policy and organizational changes in the purchasing and supply management process can potentially improve effectiveness while maintaining or lowering costs.
Estimates the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of outpatient screening for melanoma using visual inspection of the skin by dermatologists in a self-selected, higher-than-average-risk population. Costs varied from $51,481 per year of life saved to $64,646 (if evaluating and treating non-melanoma skin cancers were included). The cost-effectiveness of many melanoma screening scenarios falls within the range of other currently funded cancer screening programs.
Uses existing data to help understand the effect of changes in the private insurance marketplace on substance abuse (SA) treatment services. Different approaches to managing SA benefits and different levels of patient cost-sharing both significantly affect the type and amount of SA treatment utilization. More-generous SA benefits are a potential approach to improving access to and quality of SA treatment, but low rates of treatment suggest that the impact of this approach may be limited.
Current information suggests that millions of Americans fail to receive adequate quality health care. The author examines whether the use of claims data for measuring health care quality is being fully realized and identifies electronic data that might increase the potential for quality measurement. The author found that quality measurement relying extensively on medical records is prohibitively high for most organizations and presents four options for quality measurement: (1) the status quo; (2) expanded use of claims data; (3) expanded use of medical records; and (4) expanded use of both claims data and medical records.
