International Development & Model-based Analysis and Policy Design: on dynamic complexity, deep uncertainty, and adaptive robust policymaking

Shant Abak Well, Djibouti (Courtesy US Navy)

US Navy photograph

Children drink from the Shant Abak Well, in Kenya

Speaker:

Dr. Erik Pruyt
Assistant professor of System Dynamics at Delft University of Technology, and methodological advisor to the Dutch government regarding National Safety and Security

Date:

January 8, 2013

Time:

12–1:15 p.m. PT

Location:

RAND Corporation
1776 Main Street
Santa Monica, CA

About the Program

Many grand challenges and international development issues are complex, dynamic, and deeply uncertain. Generating foresight and designing policies with regard to such issues greatly benefits from explicitly taking deep uncertainty, temporal dynamics, and adaptivity into account.

In this talk, we will focus on a several international development issues — the effects of biofuels on food security, effects of aids and cholera on post-disaster recovery and development, world water limits, et cetera — to illustrate why and how we combine Exploratory Modeling and Analysis (EMA), System Dynamics-like modeling (SD), and an adaptive policymaking framework For generating foresight and the design of targeted policies.

About the Speaker

Dr. Erik Pruyt is an assistant professor of System Dynamics at Delft University of Technology since 2006, where he and his colleagues develop methods and tools for dealing with deeply uncertain dynamically complex issues. Since 2007, he is also a methodological advisor to the Dutch government regarding National Safety and Security. As such, he co-developed the Dutch National Risk Assessment and Capability Analysis and advised several nations regarding the development of their National Risk Assessments. He also developed methods and software tools for regional risk analysis, and for integrated risk-capability analysis for event-related risks.

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